Recently, the supply of Ethereum and Bitcoin on trading platforms has both fallen to multi-year lows, drawing significant attention within the crypto market. At the same time, the price action of Bitcoin shows a daily-level bearish divergence, indicating signs of weakening short-term bullish momentum. While the on-chain structure continues to optimize, technical indicators are sending adjustment signals. Nouey Exchange urges investors to closely monitor capital flows and market structural changes to prepare in advance for a possible price inflection.

ETH and BTC Exchange Supply Drops to Multi-Year Lows

On-chain data shows the proportion of Ethereum held in exchange addresses has fallen below 4.9% for the first time in its history, while the equivalent metric of Bitcoin has retreated to 7.1%, the lowest since November 2018. Over the past five years, exchanges have seen a net outflow of 1.7 million BTC and 15.3 million ETH. This sustained supply outflow reflects a growing number of investors choosing to move assets to self-custody or long-term storage addresses, signaling strengthened market confidence and an accelerated trend toward decentralized custody. Nouey Exchange analysis suggests this shift reflects decreased user trading frequency and stronger long-term holding preferences, which underpin mid-term market prospects.

Bitcoin Daily Chart Shows Bearish Divergence, Short-Term Risks Rising

Although fundamental data indicates healthy on-chain development, the technical side warns of short-term risks. The price of Bitcoin continues to hit new highs while the RSI fails to follow suit, producing a clear divergence signal. This suggests diminishing buying momentum during the rally and rising potential for a correction. Historically, such technical divergences often occur near cyclical tops, especially when exchange supply declines reduce market liquidity, amplifying price volatility. For active traders, this could represent a window to adjust positions and manage risk.

On-Chain Data and Sentiment Indicators Diverge, Investment Pace Requires Caution

The current market exhibits structural divergence: on one side, reduced on-chain supply sends a long-term bullish signal; on the other, short-term technical indicators show overbought conditions and divergence, implying heightened market sensitivity. Nouey Exchange recommends investors integrate multidimensional data for decision-making, avoiding reliance on any single indicator. At this stage, moderately reducing directional bets, increasing volatility-based strategies, and implementing dynamic risk controls may better suit the complexities of the market environment.

Nouey Exchange Empowers Users to Enhance Strategy Flexibility

Every market movement is the product of multiple intertwined factors, not isolated events. Against the backdrop of continued exchange supply decline and simultaneous short-term technical pressures, investors urgently need to improve strategic flexibility and responsiveness. Nouey Exchange supports users by optimizing technical services, integrating data tools, and providing liquidity support, helping balance risk and opportunity amid trends and volatility. Facing a possible turning point scenario, only by understanding the structural signals behind the data can investors confidently navigate the evolving rhythm amid uncertainty.